Posted: 3:00 am Friday, November 25th, 2016
By Jamie Dupree
The state of Michigan is now in the win column for President-Elect Donald Trump, further cementing his victory over Hillary Clinton, even as Clinton’s popular vote lead has now grown to over 2 million votes nationally.
Numbers posted by the Secretary of State in Michigan show Trump ended up winning the Wolverine State by less than a quarter of one percent – 10,704 votes was the margin out of almost 4.8 million votes cast.
Trump’s lead shrank from just over 13,000 as each county in Michigan ran through a check of their election results – but the win now gives him 306 Electoral Votes in all, more than enough to clinch the White House.
Even as Trump won in Michigan, Clinton saw her lead in the popular vote grow even more – it now stands at over 2.1 million votes, and may grow more before all the votes are tallied nationwide.
Clinton’s national vote lead has steadily increased since the morning after the elections when she conceded defeat.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 24, 2016
Her advantage of over 2 million votes is by far the largest for any of the five elections where the popular vote winner has not won the White House.
Those “winners” who ended up losing: Andrew Jackson in 1824, Samuel Tilden in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888 and Al Gore in 2000; Gore ‘won’ the popular vote by 540,000 votes – Clinton’s advantage will be almost four times that of Gore, as she joins that historic group.
One interesting note – as Clinton’s vote lead has grown over Trump, the national polls have actually become a bit less ‘wrong’ in a sense.
Final RCP polling average vs Actual popular vote spread
2012: Obama +0.7% vs Obama +3.9%
2016: Clinton +3.3% vs Clinton +1.5%
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) November 25, 2016
In 2012, the polling averages missed by just over three points, as they underestimated the voting strength of President Obama.
In 2016, the national polling average overestimated Clinton’s strength, but now that margin has dropped to under two percent and may go down more as the final ballots are tallied.
That means the final popular vote results were well within the margin of error for national polls – it’s the state polling where the polls missed the mark by a much wider margin.
About the Author
Jamie Dupree is the Radio News Director of the Washington Bureau of the Cox Media Group and writes the Washington Insider blog. A native of Washington, D.C., Jamie has covered Congress and politics in the nation’s capital since the Reagan Administration, and has been reporting for Cox since 1989.